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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Tomorrow: What Every Canadian Needs to Know Before June 10

Current Rate 2.25% Held since Oct 2025 Expected Decision HOLD 34/34 economists Announcement 9:45 AM Wed, June 10 (ET) Prime Rate 4.45% Most major lenders On Wednesday morning, June 10, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET — and for Canadians with a mortgage, a variable-rate loan, or a renewal coming up, the decision is just two days away. Governor Tiff Macklem will follow with a press conference at 10:30 AM. The short answer: expect no change. But the full picture is considerably more complicated — and the Bank's tone tomorrow could signal whether rate hikes are quietly creeping back onto the table. The Consensus: A Hold, Full Stop The economist community is remarkably united heading into this decision. In a Reuters poll conducted June 2–5, all 34 economists surveyed predicted the Bank would leave its overnight rate at 2.25%. More than 80% said it would stay there for the rest of 2026. "Under normal circumstances, today's sagging econom...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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