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5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision Looms, TSX Slides, Gas Prices Climb (Sept 16)

  Wednesday, September 16, 2026 The Fed's biggest decision in years lands at 2 p.m. ET today, the TSX and loonie are both licking their wounds, and drivers are paying more at the pump despite the gas tax holiday. Here's what's moving your money this morning. 1. The Fed Decides on Rates Today — and a Hike Looks All but Certain The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Markets have priced in over 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% from 3.50%–3.75%, where it's sat since December. It would be the first hike of this cycle, driven by inflation still running above target even as the labour market holds up. What it means for you: A Fed hike widens the gap with the Bank of Canada's 2.25% rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and nudge Canadian bond yields — and by extension fixed mortgage pricing — upward. Watch for the reaction ...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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