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TSX Sags to 8-Week Low as Yields Surge and Oil Slides — Sept 30, 2026

  Wall Street, Bay Street and the bond market all spent Tuesday waiting on inflation. The S&P/TSX Composite slipped to about an eight-week low, U.S. Treasury yields pushed to multi-decade highs, and a sharp drop in oil prices weighed on energy stocks while easing some inflation worries. Today brings the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, and it could decide whether October brings another rate hike. The Big Picture U.S. consumer confidence sank to its lowest level since 2014, the loonie sits near a 12-week low, and markets are split on whether the Fed hikes again on Oct. 28. Today's PCE report at 8:30 a.m. ET is the next big test. Canada: TSX Drifts Lower, GDP Stalls Index Close Change Notes S&P/TSX Composite 35,460.27 -0.08% -29.59 pts (unofficial close); about 4.3% below the August record of 37,069.11 TSX Venture 887.30 -0.78% -6.94 pts The TSX gave up another 29.59 points on Tuesday after Monday's 311-point (0.87%) slide, which had already taken it to its lowest cl...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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