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5 Things to Know Today: July 2, 2026 — CUSMA Non-Renewal, First CGEB Payment & More

  Your quick morning rundown on the money news that matters to Canadians. 1. The U.S. won't renew CUSMA "in its current form" Washington confirmed on July 1 that it will not agree to extend the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) as written, after the three countries held their first mandatory joint review of the deal. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the agreement "is not renewed" for now, though it stays in force until 2036 and will instead move to a rolling annual review process. Canada's Dominic LeBlanc says Ottawa still wants CUSMA renewed and extended, with talks continuing on outstanding sectoral tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber. For now, day-to-day trade rules haven't changed, but the uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment and could resurface as a headwind for the loonie in the months ahead. 2. First Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit payment lands tomorrow If you're eligible, keep an ey...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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