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Weekly Market Snapshot: Fed Hikes, Oil Above $100 and the TSX Finally Snaps Its Losing Streak (Sept. 15–19, 2026)

  September 19, 2026 It was the week everyone was waiting for. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and almost immediately, markets started debating whether there's more to come. Meanwhile, oil pulled back from the week's highs but stayed well above $100 a barrel, and the TSX managed its first weekly gain after four straight weeks in the red. Here's everything that moved markets — and what it means for your wallet. 🍁 Canada — TSX Index Friday Close Week Change S&P/TSX Composite 35,806.65 +0.3% After four straight weeks in negative territory, the TSX finally caught a break — though "break" is generous. The index eked out a 0.3% weekly gain while closing Friday down 69.58 points (-0.2%), as rising bond yields and lingering energy-sector pressures kept the mood cautious on Bay Street. Financials were mixed: RBC edged slightly lower, TD rose 0.6%, but Fairfax Financial slid 2.6%. Gold miners pulled back after rallying shar...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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