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Ottawa's Parliament Hill, where the Carney government is rolling out Canada's largest fiscal stimulus package since 1980. / Photo: Unsplash. MoneySavings.ca  ·  Economy & Policy Monday, April 13, 2026  ·  Daily Edition Canada at a crossroads: oil shock, frozen rates, and a trade deal on the clock Canada's economy is navigating a uniquely complicated moment in 2026. A Middle East conflict has sent oil prices surging past US$104 a barrel, a once-in-a-generation fiscal stimulus package is being rolled out in Ottawa, and the clock is ticking on a renegotiation of Canada's most important trade agreement. For everyday Canadians, this means uncertainty at the gas pump, a central bank with limited room to cut rates, and a federal government betting big on public spending to kick-start growth. Here is what you need to know about the forces shaping the Canadian economy right now. 1. The Bank of Canada is stuck — and oil is why The Bank of Canada has held it...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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