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Canadian Money Brief: 5 Things to Know Today — Tuesday, May 19, 2026

  From Canada's surprise rise to near the top of G7 growth charts, to softening rents, a cooling job market, and a looming trade renegotiation with the U.S. — here's what's moving your money today. 1 Economy & Growth Canada Is the 2nd-Fastest Growing G7 Economy — But Headwinds Loom The IMF now projects Canada to post the 2nd-fastest GDP growth in the G7 for 2026–2027, and the Spring 2026 Economic Update backs that up: the economy grew 1.7% in 2025 while avoiding a recession. Business investment is rebounding — up 2.6% in Q4 2025 — and Canada has attracted a record $97 billion in foreign direct investment. The engine? A relative tariff advantage under CUSMA, strong energy exports, and targeted federal spending. The caution: that momentum is fragile. Higher oil prices, a soft labour market, and a critical U.S. trade review mid-year could all shift the outlook quickly. 💡 What it means for you A growing economy generally supports job stability and wage gains — but don...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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