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Oil Surges Past $103 as TSX Extends Losing Streak

  Markets are lower this morning as oil surges past US$103 and tech stocks remain under pressure, with the TSX coming off a fourth straight decline. Below is your ready-to-publish Canadian Money Brief update for April 29, 2026 , built from today’s market data and news. TSX slips as oil spikes and global tensions rise The S&P/TSX Composite opened at 33,584 , down 0.69% from yesterday’s close as weakness in tech and materials continues to weigh on the index. Rising geopolitical tensions and renewed uncertainty around the Iran conflict have pushed WTI crude above US$103 , lifting Canadian energy names but not enough to offset broader declines.  U.S. markets are also softer, with the S&P 500 down 0.49% and tech stocks retreating amid renewed AI growth concerns.  Oil rallies on OPEC turmoil Crude prices are up more than 3% , driven by the UAE’s announcement that it will exit OPEC and by expectations of prolonged supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.  ...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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