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The Mortgage Renewal Wave Just Peaked — Here's What the Data Actually Shows

Published August 30, 2026 For three years, "the mortgage renewal wall" has been the scariest phrase in Canadian personal finance — the idea that a flood of ultra-cheap, pandemic-era mortgages would come due at much higher rates and trigger a wave of forced sales. That wall is now mostly behind us. Two new 2026 surveys, one from Royal LePage and one from Rates.ca, show what actually happened when it hit. The short version: it hurt, budgets tightened hard for a lot of people, but the mass default many feared simply didn't show up. The last big group is renewing right now Royal LePage's 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey, released August 19 and based on a Leger poll of 1,127 Canadians renewing this year, pins down where things stand: about 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are five-year, fixed-payment loans taken out during the 2020–2022 ultra-low-rate window, and this is their last major renewal wave. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate sat at just 0.25% through m...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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