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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Banks face challenges as fiscal year ends

                                     

The fiscal year 2023 has been a tough one for Canada’s major banks, as they faced rising costs, regulatory pressures and credit risks. Analysts expect their fourth-quarter earnings, which will be reported this week, to show a decline from last year.

Some of the challenges that the banks encountered this year include:

  • Cost-cutting measures: Some banks, such as RBC and Scotiabank, have reduced their work force and real estate holdings to lower their expenses. Others, such as BMO, have completed or planned major integrations of their acquisitions.
  • Regulatory scrutiny: TD Bank is awaiting the outcome of investigations by U.S. authorities over its anti-money-laundering practices, which could result in fines or other penalties. RBC’s proposed takeover of HSBC’s Canadian unit has also faced opposition from political and environmental groups.
  • Credit risks: As interest rates rise and inflation persists, the banks have increased their provisions for potential loan losses, anticipating higher defaults from their borrowers. The banks are also required to hold more capital by the banking watchdog, OSFI, to cushion against an economic downturn.
  • Slow loan growth: The demand for lending has been dampened by the high cost of borrowing and the uncertainty over the economic recovery. The banks have also faced stiff competition from fintechs and other non-bank lenders, who offer more convenient and cheaper alternatives.

Despite these headwinds, the banks are still well-positioned to weather the storm, as they have strong capital ratios, diversified businesses and loyal customers. The banks are also investing in digital transformation, innovation and growth opportunities, especially in international markets. Analysts and investors will be looking for signs of resilience and optimism from the banks as they wrap up the fiscal year.

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