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Canada's Economy Just Grew 3.3% — Here's Why That Makes a September Rate Cut Even Less Likely

  Published August 29, 2026 If you've been holding out hope that a slowing economy might finally push the Bank of Canada toward a rate cut, Friday's numbers just closed that door a little further. Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% in the second quarter — the fastest rate since 2023 — and revised figures show the first quarter expanded 0.3% rather than shrinking as originally reported. That confirms Canada never actually slid into a technical recession this year. It's good news for the economy. It's less good news if you were counting on lower borrowing costs anytime soon. What actually drove the growth The rebound was broad-based. Exports posted their strongest performance in 39 months, business investment in factories, equipment and commercial real estate jumped, and consumer spending held up as well. On a per-person basis, output grew at a 3.8% annualized clip — the quickest pace since late 2021, even with Canada...
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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and consumer woes

 


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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and spending woes

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada. This was a much weaker result than expected by analysts and the Bank of Canada, which had forecast a slight growth of 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

The main factors behind the economic decline were a drop in exports, a slump in business investment, and a stagnation in consumer spending. Exports fell by 5.1 per cent, reflecting lower shipments of energy products, motor vehicles, and aircraft. Business investment decreased by 10.1 per cent, as firms reduced their spending on machinery and equipment, intellectual property, and non-residential structures. Consumer spending was flat, as households saved more of their income amid rising interest rates.

The only bright spots in the third quarter were government spending, which increased by 7.3 per cent, boosted by a one-time GST/HST credit payment, and residential housing investment, which rose by 8.3 per cent, driven by a surge in new construction.

The Canadian economy also performed poorly compared with the U.S. economy, which grew by 5.2 per cent in the same period. Canada has been more sensitive to the impact of higher interest rates, which have been raised by the Bank of Canada to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent since early 2022. The central bank has recently signalled that it may pause or reverse its tightening cycle, as inflation has eased and economic growth has faltered.

Some economists believe that the third quarter contraction was a temporary setback and that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter and beyond. Statistics Canada estimated that GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in October, indicating a modest recovery. However, others warn that the economy may face more headwinds in the new year, such as the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the spread of the new COVID-19 variant, and the uncertainty over the federal fiscal policy.

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