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5 Things to Know Today — June 21, 2026

  Whether you're starting your week or wrapping up your weekend, here are the five Canadian money stories shaping your financial picture right now. 1 Canada Is Technically in a Recession — And the Political Fight Is On Canada's GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026, following a 1% decline in Q4 2025 — two consecutive quarters of negative growth that meet the textbook definition of a technical recession. Prime Minister Mark Carney has called it a "settling-in period" tied to his government's restructuring of the economy in response to the U.S. trade war. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been relentless in his counter-offensive, pointing to rising insolvencies, job losses and food bank usage as proof that the downturn is real, not technical. Many economists, including BMO's chief economist Douglas Porter, have noted that a future revision to Statistics Canada's data could erase the slim 0.1% contraction — meaning this may not ultimate...
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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and consumer woes

 


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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and spending woes

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada. This was a much weaker result than expected by analysts and the Bank of Canada, which had forecast a slight growth of 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

The main factors behind the economic decline were a drop in exports, a slump in business investment, and a stagnation in consumer spending. Exports fell by 5.1 per cent, reflecting lower shipments of energy products, motor vehicles, and aircraft. Business investment decreased by 10.1 per cent, as firms reduced their spending on machinery and equipment, intellectual property, and non-residential structures. Consumer spending was flat, as households saved more of their income amid rising interest rates.

The only bright spots in the third quarter were government spending, which increased by 7.3 per cent, boosted by a one-time GST/HST credit payment, and residential housing investment, which rose by 8.3 per cent, driven by a surge in new construction.

The Canadian economy also performed poorly compared with the U.S. economy, which grew by 5.2 per cent in the same period. Canada has been more sensitive to the impact of higher interest rates, which have been raised by the Bank of Canada to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent since early 2022. The central bank has recently signalled that it may pause or reverse its tightening cycle, as inflation has eased and economic growth has faltered.

Some economists believe that the third quarter contraction was a temporary setback and that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter and beyond. Statistics Canada estimated that GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in October, indicating a modest recovery. However, others warn that the economy may face more headwinds in the new year, such as the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the spread of the new COVID-19 variant, and the uncertainty over the federal fiscal policy.

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