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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and consumer woes

 


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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and spending woes

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada. This was a much weaker result than expected by analysts and the Bank of Canada, which had forecast a slight growth of 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

The main factors behind the economic decline were a drop in exports, a slump in business investment, and a stagnation in consumer spending. Exports fell by 5.1 per cent, reflecting lower shipments of energy products, motor vehicles, and aircraft. Business investment decreased by 10.1 per cent, as firms reduced their spending on machinery and equipment, intellectual property, and non-residential structures. Consumer spending was flat, as households saved more of their income amid rising interest rates.

The only bright spots in the third quarter were government spending, which increased by 7.3 per cent, boosted by a one-time GST/HST credit payment, and residential housing investment, which rose by 8.3 per cent, driven by a surge in new construction.

The Canadian economy also performed poorly compared with the U.S. economy, which grew by 5.2 per cent in the same period. Canada has been more sensitive to the impact of higher interest rates, which have been raised by the Bank of Canada to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent since early 2022. The central bank has recently signalled that it may pause or reverse its tightening cycle, as inflation has eased and economic growth has faltered.

Some economists believe that the third quarter contraction was a temporary setback and that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter and beyond. Statistics Canada estimated that GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in October, indicating a modest recovery. However, others warn that the economy may face more headwinds in the new year, such as the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the spread of the new COVID-19 variant, and the uncertainty over the federal fiscal policy.

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