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5 Things to Know Today: Midterms Day, Oil Plunge, Trade Deal, Budget (Nov 3)

  Canadian Money Brief • Tuesday, November 3, 2026 It’s Election Day in the United States, oil just had its biggest one-day drop since late July, and Ottawa tables its budget on Thursday. Here are five things to know today, and what each one means for your wallet. 1. U.S. midterms: Canada is watching Americans vote in the midterm elections today. Markets are expecting Democrats to win the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate is still uncertain. Trade policy has been a campaign issue, especially in border states such as Michigan and Maine, where Republican candidates have faced pressure over tariffs that have hurt local businesses. What it means for you: The result could move the loonie, the TSX and the tariff talks over the coming days, but one election night is rarely a reason to rebuild your TFSA or RRSP. If you need to convert Canadian dollars to U.S. dollars soon, expect choppy exchange rates. 2. Oil plunges on Iran diplomacy, then bounces Oil fell sharply o...
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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and consumer woes

 


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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and spending woes

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada. This was a much weaker result than expected by analysts and the Bank of Canada, which had forecast a slight growth of 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

The main factors behind the economic decline were a drop in exports, a slump in business investment, and a stagnation in consumer spending. Exports fell by 5.1 per cent, reflecting lower shipments of energy products, motor vehicles, and aircraft. Business investment decreased by 10.1 per cent, as firms reduced their spending on machinery and equipment, intellectual property, and non-residential structures. Consumer spending was flat, as households saved more of their income amid rising interest rates.

The only bright spots in the third quarter were government spending, which increased by 7.3 per cent, boosted by a one-time GST/HST credit payment, and residential housing investment, which rose by 8.3 per cent, driven by a surge in new construction.

The Canadian economy also performed poorly compared with the U.S. economy, which grew by 5.2 per cent in the same period. Canada has been more sensitive to the impact of higher interest rates, which have been raised by the Bank of Canada to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent since early 2022. The central bank has recently signalled that it may pause or reverse its tightening cycle, as inflation has eased and economic growth has faltered.

Some economists believe that the third quarter contraction was a temporary setback and that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter and beyond. Statistics Canada estimated that GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in October, indicating a modest recovery. However, others warn that the economy may face more headwinds in the new year, such as the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the spread of the new COVID-19 variant, and the uncertainty over the federal fiscal policy.

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