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Markets Rebound as Hopes for Iran–U.S. Dialogue Ease Geopolitical Tensions

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday as signs of potential diplomatic movement in the Iran–U.S. standoff helped calm volatile markets. Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose about 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.2% after a turbulent prior session.  The shift in sentiment followed reports that Iran has quietly approached the United States to discuss terms for ending the escalating conflict , a development that helped cool fears of further disruption in global energy markets. This diplomatic signal contributed to a rebound after Tuesday’s sharp sell-off, when concerns over widening conflict and rising oil prices rattled investors.  The conflict, now in its fifth day, has seen continued strikes and mounting casualties, adding to market unease. Iran is preparing for the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in recent attacks, while regional tensions remain high.  Despite the ongoing uncertainty, Wednesda...
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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and consumer woes

 


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Canada’s economy shrinks in Q3 amid export and spending woes

Canada’s economy contracted by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to Statistics Canada. This was a much weaker result than expected by analysts and the Bank of Canada, which had forecast a slight growth of 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

The main factors behind the economic decline were a drop in exports, a slump in business investment, and a stagnation in consumer spending. Exports fell by 5.1 per cent, reflecting lower shipments of energy products, motor vehicles, and aircraft. Business investment decreased by 10.1 per cent, as firms reduced their spending on machinery and equipment, intellectual property, and non-residential structures. Consumer spending was flat, as households saved more of their income amid rising interest rates.

The only bright spots in the third quarter were government spending, which increased by 7.3 per cent, boosted by a one-time GST/HST credit payment, and residential housing investment, which rose by 8.3 per cent, driven by a surge in new construction.

The Canadian economy also performed poorly compared with the U.S. economy, which grew by 5.2 per cent in the same period. Canada has been more sensitive to the impact of higher interest rates, which have been raised by the Bank of Canada to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent since early 2022. The central bank has recently signalled that it may pause or reverse its tightening cycle, as inflation has eased and economic growth has faltered.

Some economists believe that the third quarter contraction was a temporary setback and that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter and beyond. Statistics Canada estimated that GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in October, indicating a modest recovery. However, others warn that the economy may face more headwinds in the new year, such as the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the spread of the new COVID-19 variant, and the uncertainty over the federal fiscal policy.

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