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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canadian Housing Market Enters Winter Hibernation: What You Need to Know

 


According to a recent news article, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has reported that home sales in Canada have slowed down in October, with a 5.6% decline compared to September. The article also mentions that both buyers and sellers appear to be holding off for the time being, with some sellers shelving their plans until next spring.

The causes of the slowdown are attributed to various factors, such as higher interest rates, tighter lending rules, rising home prices, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and consumer confidence. The article also notes that some regions of British Columbia are starting to see softening in average home prices, while average home price declines are still uncommon throughout most of Canada’s major cities.

Despite the slowdown, the Canadian housing market remains active, with 33,921 homes sold in Canada in October, up 0.9% compared with the same month last year. The national average home price rose 1.8% year-over-year to $656,625.

If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in Canada, it’s advisable to keep an eye on the market trends and consult with a licensed real estate agent or mortgage broker. They can provide you with valuable insights and advice on how to navigate the current market conditions and make informed decisions.


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