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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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TD to slash jobs after disappointing earnings report


The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) announced that it will cut an unspecified number of jobs as part of a restructuring plan to reduce costs and improve efficiency. The move comes after the bank reported lower-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023, amid rising expenses and higher provisions for credit losses.

According to its financial results, TD earned $3.2 billion, or $1.72 per share, in the quarter ended Oct. 31, down from $3.5 billion, or $1.87 per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.79 per share, according to Refinitiv. The bank’s revenue increased by 4 per cent to $11.8 billion, but its expenses rose by 7 per cent to $6.9 billion. The bank also set aside $1.1 billion for bad loans, up from $891 million in the same period last year.

TD’s chief executive officer Bharat Masrani said the bank is facing “a challenging and uncertain environment” due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy. He said the bank is taking “decisive actions” to adapt to the changing conditions and position itself for long-term growth. He did not provide details on how many jobs will be affected by the restructuring, but said the bank will offer support and transition assistance to the impacted employees.

TD’s disappointing earnings contrast with the strong performance of its peers, such as Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Montreal and National Bank of Canada, which all beat analysts’ estimates and raised their dividends in the fourth quarter. TD was the only one of the Big Six banks that did not increase its dividend, keeping it at 79 cents per share.

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