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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...
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Toronto Housing Market Cools Down as Interest Rates Heat Up

 


The Toronto housing market has experienced a sharp slowdown in October 2023, as the high interest rates that have been pressuring the market show little sign of easing. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board The benchmark price of a home in Canada’s largest city fell to C$1.13 million ($815,000) in October, down 1.7% from September, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said Thursday. That’s the third straight monthly drop and the fastest pace of decline in 15 months.

The number of sales also dropped 5% from the previous month, to 4,867 transactions, comparable to the deep market freeze of December and January. The TRREB predicts that activity will not rebound over the remainder of the year, as the Bank of Canada repeatedly says that it is prepared to raise interest rates above the current 5% if inflation remains high.

The high interest rates have made borrowing more expensive and reduced the affordability of homeownership for many potential buyers. The TRREB says that the average monthly mortgage payment for a typical home in Toronto has increased by 25% since January 2023, while the average household income has only increased by 2%.

The cooling of the Toronto housing market is in contrast to the national trend, which saw home sales and prices increase slightly in October, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. However, some analysts warn that the national figures may not reflect the true state of the market, as they are skewed by the strong performance of some smaller markets, such as Halifax and Montreal.

The TRREB says that it expects the Toronto housing market to remain subdued in the near term, as buyers and sellers adjust to the new reality of higher interest rates. However, it also says that there are still some positive factors that support the long-term outlook for the market, such as strong population growth, low unemployment, and high demand for housing.


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