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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Toronto Housing Market Cools Down as Interest Rates Heat Up

 


The Toronto housing market has experienced a sharp slowdown in October 2023, as the high interest rates that have been pressuring the market show little sign of easing. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board The benchmark price of a home in Canada’s largest city fell to C$1.13 million ($815,000) in October, down 1.7% from September, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said Thursday. That’s the third straight monthly drop and the fastest pace of decline in 15 months.

The number of sales also dropped 5% from the previous month, to 4,867 transactions, comparable to the deep market freeze of December and January. The TRREB predicts that activity will not rebound over the remainder of the year, as the Bank of Canada repeatedly says that it is prepared to raise interest rates above the current 5% if inflation remains high.

The high interest rates have made borrowing more expensive and reduced the affordability of homeownership for many potential buyers. The TRREB says that the average monthly mortgage payment for a typical home in Toronto has increased by 25% since January 2023, while the average household income has only increased by 2%.

The cooling of the Toronto housing market is in contrast to the national trend, which saw home sales and prices increase slightly in October, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. However, some analysts warn that the national figures may not reflect the true state of the market, as they are skewed by the strong performance of some smaller markets, such as Halifax and Montreal.

The TRREB says that it expects the Toronto housing market to remain subdued in the near term, as buyers and sellers adjust to the new reality of higher interest rates. However, it also says that there are still some positive factors that support the long-term outlook for the market, such as strong population growth, low unemployment, and high demand for housing.


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