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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Canadian Stocks Edge Higher, U.S. Markets Slip on Last Trading Day of 2023

 

Canadian stocks closed slightly higher on Friday, the last trading day of 2023, as gains in the industrials and utilities sectors offset losses in the energy and materials sectors. The S&P/TSX composite index rose 29.06 points, or 0.14%, to end at 20,958.44, capping off a year of strong performance amid the recovery from the pandemic.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets dipped as investors took profits and weighed the impact of the Omicron variant on the economic outlook. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 20.56 points, or 0.05%, to 37,689.54, while the S&P 500 index dropped 13.52 points, or 0.28%, to 4,769.83. The Nasdaq composite index, which is heavily weighted with technology stocks, declined 83.78 points, or 0.56%, to 15,011.35.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against its U.S. counterpart, as the greenback strengthened on the back of higher Treasury yields. The loonie was down 0.08 cents at 75.61 cents US.

In commodities, oil prices edged lower as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to stick to their plan of gradually increasing output in January, despite concerns over the demand outlook. The February crude oil contract was down 12 cents at US$71.65 per barrel. Natural gas prices also slipped, with the February natural gas contract down four cents at US$2.51 per mmBTU.

Gold prices fell as the appetite for safe-haven assets waned, while copper prices also dropped amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The February gold contract was down US$11.70 at US$2,071.80 an ounce and the March copper contract was down three cents at US$3.89 a pound.

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