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Fed Poised for First 2025 Rate Cut as Weak Jobs Data Outweigh Inflation Concerns

  The Federal Reserve seal at its Washington, D.C. headquarters, where policymakers are set to decide on the first interest rate cut of 2025. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the first since December last year. The move would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.00%–4.25%, as policymakers respond to slowing job growth and rising unemployment, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent labor market data showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, with earlier months revised downward, while the unemployment rate has climbed to around 4.3%. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, has edged higher in recent months, partly due to tariffs pushing up consumer prices. Markets have largely priced in the cut, with investors watching the Fed’s updated “dot plot” for clues on whether more reductions will follow in October and December. The decision ...

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Canadian Stocks Edge Higher, U.S. Markets Slip on Last Trading Day of 2023

 

Canadian stocks closed slightly higher on Friday, the last trading day of 2023, as gains in the industrials and utilities sectors offset losses in the energy and materials sectors. The S&P/TSX composite index rose 29.06 points, or 0.14%, to end at 20,958.44, capping off a year of strong performance amid the recovery from the pandemic.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets dipped as investors took profits and weighed the impact of the Omicron variant on the economic outlook. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 20.56 points, or 0.05%, to 37,689.54, while the S&P 500 index dropped 13.52 points, or 0.28%, to 4,769.83. The Nasdaq composite index, which is heavily weighted with technology stocks, declined 83.78 points, or 0.56%, to 15,011.35.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against its U.S. counterpart, as the greenback strengthened on the back of higher Treasury yields. The loonie was down 0.08 cents at 75.61 cents US.

In commodities, oil prices edged lower as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to stick to their plan of gradually increasing output in January, despite concerns over the demand outlook. The February crude oil contract was down 12 cents at US$71.65 per barrel. Natural gas prices also slipped, with the February natural gas contract down four cents at US$2.51 per mmBTU.

Gold prices fell as the appetite for safe-haven assets waned, while copper prices also dropped amid a stronger U.S. dollar. The February gold contract was down US$11.70 at US$2,071.80 an ounce and the March copper contract was down three cents at US$3.89 a pound.

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