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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Federal Incentives Boost Chinese Tesla Imports, Concerning Canadian Auto Industry


Canada’s auto parts industry is expressing concern over the surge in imports of Chinese-made Teslas, which are being subsidized by federal consumer incentive. This trend is seen as benefiting Tesla, a company with no manufacturing presence in Canada, at the expense of local firms with domestic investments.

Key Points:

  • Incentive Alignment: The Auto Parts Manufacturers’ Association suggests aligning Canada’s EV (Electric Vehicles) incentives with the U.S., which excludes rebates for Chinese-manufactured EVs.
  • Market Impact: Statistics show a significant increase in Chinese EV imports to Canada, coinciding with a drop in U.S. EV imports.
  • Policy Implications: The current Canadian incentives do not restrict rebates based on assembly location or battery material sourcing, contrasting with U.S. policies aimed at reducing dependency on Chinese supply chains.
  • Industry Outlook: The rise in Chinese Tesla imports raises concerns about the future competitiveness of Canadian and North American auto parts manufacturers and assemblers.

The industry calls for a reevaluation of incentive policies to support the growth of a homegrown EV industry and reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing, particularly from China.

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