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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...

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Population growth outpaces job creation in Canada

 


Canada’s labour market is facing a challenge as the number of people looking for work is growing faster than the number of jobs available. According to Statistics Canada, employment increased by 25,000 in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.8 per cent from 5.7 per cent in October. This is because the population aged 15 and over grew by 870,000, or 2.7 per cent, since the beginning of the year, while the net job gain was only 430,000.

The Bank of Canada has been raising interest rates to curb inflation, but this has also slowed down the economy and the demand for labour. Some economists expect the central bank to start cutting rates in the second quarter of next year to stimulate growth and stabilize the labour market.

The job gains in November were concentrated in the private sector, full-time work, manufacturing and construction. However, some industries, such as wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance and real estate, saw job losses. Younger workers (15 to 24) also faced higher unemployment than other age groups.

Average hourly wages rose 4.8 per cent year over year in November, matching the increase in October. The Bank of Canada is monitoring wage growth for signs of inflationary pressure. Total hours worked across the economy fell 0.7 per cent in November, indicating a weak performance of gross domestic product that month.


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