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Trade Tensions Take Toll: Canada Loses 33,000 Jobs in March

  Canada's labour market faced a significant setback in March, shedding 33,000 jobs—the largest monthly decline since January 2022. This drop pushed the unemployment rate up to 6.7%, a slight increase from February's 6.6%. The job losses were primarily concentrated in full-time positions, with 62,000 roles eliminated. Sectors such as wholesale and retail trade, as well as information, culture, and recreation, bore the brunt of the decline. However, some gains were observed in part-time employment and industries like utilities and personal services. Economists attribute this downturn to the escalating trade war with the United States, which has introduced tariffs on Canadian exports, including steel and aluminum. These measures have created uncertainty for businesses, leading to layoffs and a cautious approach to hiring. As Canada navigates these economic headwinds, policymakers and businesses alike face the challenge of mitigating the impact of trade tensions on the labour mark...
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U.S. jobs data dims hopes for rate cuts, stocks waver


The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in November, according to the latest non-farm payrolls report, reducing the chances of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. The report showed that U.S. employers added 200,000 new workers last month, beating the consensus forecast of 180,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, the lowest level since 1969, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from the previous month, indicating a tight labor market and rising wage pressures.

The strong jobs data boosted the dollar and pushed up the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, which reflects expectations for long-term borrowing costs. The yield rose 13 basis points to 4.129%, the highest level since October. The Fed, which has raised its benchmark rate by more than 5 percentage points since March 2022, is widely expected to keep it unchanged at its meeting next week. However, the robust jobs report dampened the hopes of some investors who had been betting on rate cuts as soon as March next year, amid signs of slowing global growth and trade tensions.

The reaction in the stock markets was mixed, as some sectors benefited from the positive economic outlook, while others suffered from the prospect of higher interest rates. The S&P 500 index was little changed in early trading, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell 0.4%, as growth companies are more sensitive to changes in borrowing costs. MSCI’s ( Morgan Stanley Capital International) broad gauge of world stocks was also flat, heading for a 0.1% decline this week, after five weeks of gains.

Some analysts warned that the market was too complacent about the risks of inflation and a policy mistake by the Fed. They said the Fed could be forced to tighten monetary policy more aggressively if inflation, which is currently above the Fed’s 2% target, accelerates further due to the strong labor market and rising wages. “If the Fed is going to cut aggressively, it will be due to a recession and a notable drop in inflation led by unemployment. The numbers game of NFP (i.e. monthly report excluding farm workers, government employees and mon-profit organization employees) suggests we are still far from those levels,” said Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon.



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