Thursday, July 9, 2026 Every July, a wave of federal benefit payments resets for the new benefit year — and 2026 brings one of the biggest shifts in years. Between a permanent 25% boost to the old GST/HST credit, a fresh Canada Child Benefit increase, and the largest quarterly OAS bump of the year, millions of Canadian households will see different numbers land in their accounts this month. Here's what actually changed, and what to check in your own CRA account. The GST/HST Credit Has a New Name — and a Bigger Payout The GST/HST credit has officially been replaced by the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit (CGEB) . It's not a new program from scratch — it runs on the same CRA infrastructure and eligibility rules — but the payment amounts are 25% higher, and that increase is locked in for five years. The first CGEB payment went out on July 3, 2026. Under the new structure: A single individual with no children can receive up to roughly $679 per year (about $170 per quart...
The Bank of Canada may not follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, despite the Canadian economy flirting with recession. This is due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs, which could see the central bank shifting to interest rate cuts after the Federal Reserve. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.
The Canadian economy is facing a challenging time, with the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target still out of reach. The Bank of Canada may need to take a different approach to the Federal Reserve in order to achieve its goals. Wage growth in Canada is much higher than in the United States, which could make it difficult for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. However, analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced. This could help support the Canadian dollar and delay a rebound in the economy, which would disappoint heavily indebted households, many of which are due to renew their mortgages at higher borrowing costs this year.
In conclusion, the Bank of Canada may trail the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.
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