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TSX Hits Record High as Iran Deal Lifts Markets — Daily Update, June 16, 2026

Oil tumbles on Strait of Hormuz reopening framework. All eyes on the Federal Reserve as Kevin Warsh chairs his first policy meeting. Here is everything moving Canadian wallets today. Tuesday, June 16, 2026  |  MoneySavings.ca 🇨🇦 TSX — Another Record on the Books The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a fresh all-time high on Monday, June 15, topping 35,398 intraday before finishing near the upper end of its range. The index is now up more than 11% year-to-date , the second-best performance among major global indexes tracked through mid-June — behind only Japan's Nikkei (+31%). Monday's rally was broad-based, fuelled by a surge in risk appetite following the announcement of a U.S.–Iran peace framework over the weekend. Energy, financials, and materials all participated, though energy stocks gained somewhat less than the others as crude oil prices simultaneously fell sharply on the Strait of Hormuz reopening news — a rare case where the same headline pushed the index up and one ...
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Bank of Canada may trail Fed rate cut as wage growth continues to soar

 

The Bank of Canada may not follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, despite the Canadian economy flirting with recession. This is due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs, which could see the central bank shifting to interest rate cuts after the Federal Reserve. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.

The Canadian economy is facing a challenging time, with the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target still out of reach. The Bank of Canada may need to take a different approach to the Federal Reserve in order to achieve its goals. Wage growth in Canada is much higher than in the United States, which could make it difficult for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. However, analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced. This could help support the Canadian dollar and delay a rebound in the economy, which would disappoint heavily indebted households, many of which are due to renew their mortgages at higher borrowing costs this year.

In conclusion, the Bank of Canada may trail the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.

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