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Trump's Tariff Shake-Up: Global Trade Faces New Challenges

On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping 10% tariffs on imports from all trading partners, marking a significant escalation in global trade tensions. These tariffs, described as "baseline," aim to address what Trump perceives as unfair trade practices and chronic trade deficits. While the announcement has sent ripples across international markets, the specific impact on Canada remains uncertain. Canada, a close trading partner of the U.S., has previously faced tariffs on steel, aluminum, and energy imports under Trump's administration. The new measures could further strain bilateral relations and affect key Canadian industries. Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly preparing Canada's response, as the trade war becomes a central issue in the upcoming federal election. Trump's move has sparked debates among economists and policymakers, with critics warning of potential economic fallout and supporters praising the tariffs as a step toward ...
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Bank of Canada may trail Fed rate cut as wage growth continues to soar

 

The Bank of Canada may not follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, despite the Canadian economy flirting with recession. This is due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs, which could see the central bank shifting to interest rate cuts after the Federal Reserve. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.

The Canadian economy is facing a challenging time, with the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target still out of reach. The Bank of Canada may need to take a different approach to the Federal Reserve in order to achieve its goals. Wage growth in Canada is much higher than in the United States, which could make it difficult for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. However, analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced. This could help support the Canadian dollar and delay a rebound in the economy, which would disappoint heavily indebted households, many of which are due to renew their mortgages at higher borrowing costs this year.

In conclusion, the Bank of Canada may trail the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.

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