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5 Things to Know Today — June 11, 2026

  The Bank of Canada confirmed its fifth straight rate hold yesterday, oil slipped back toward $89 a barrel after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, and Canada Post workers officially have a new contract. Here is what every Canadian needs to know heading into Wednesday. 1 of 5 — Interest Rates Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% — for the fifth time in a row The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on June 10, marking five consecutive holds since late 2025. Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank is trying to balance two opposing forces: inflation pushed higher by elevated energy costs from the Middle East war, and an economy that has barely grown in recent quarters. "Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy," Macklem told reporters, adding that holding the rate "balances those risks" for now. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage holders and borrowers with lines of credit get another month of pa...
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Bank of Canada may trail Fed rate cut as wage growth continues to soar

 

The Bank of Canada may not follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, despite the Canadian economy flirting with recession. This is due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs, which could see the central bank shifting to interest rate cuts after the Federal Reserve. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.

The Canadian economy is facing a challenging time, with the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target still out of reach. The Bank of Canada may need to take a different approach to the Federal Reserve in order to achieve its goals. Wage growth in Canada is much higher than in the United States, which could make it difficult for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. However, analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced. This could help support the Canadian dollar and delay a rebound in the economy, which would disappoint heavily indebted households, many of which are due to renew their mortgages at higher borrowing costs this year.

In conclusion, the Bank of Canada may trail the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates due to high growth in Canadian wages and shelter costs. However, factors peculiar to Canada, such as declining productivity, record levels of immigration, and a relatively unionized workforce, could stand in the way of inflation returning to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Wage growth could be slow to ease as collective bargaining agreements lock in multi-year wage settlements. Analysts suggest that there should be more differentiation between the Fed and BoC rate paths than is currently priced.

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