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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...

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Red Sea Tensions Delay Oil Shipments from Saudi Arabia and Iraq


Tankers carrying nearly 9 million barrels of oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia have been forced to delay their deliveries due to Red Sea security threats. The attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis from Yemen on commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea have made some shipowners reluctant to sail via the region. The Red Sea carries an estimated 9 million barrels a day of oil shipments, representing about 10% of global demand, while the route covers almost one-third of global container traffic and around 12% of global goods trade. The diversions and delays highlight the chaos in the shipping industry that’s spilling over into the wider economy and raising the risk of inflation as flows of food and other goods get disrupted.

The diverted vessels are heading toward Africa, which is a longer voyage from the Middle East to refiners and consumers in Europe. The detour can add more than two weeks’ sailing time when compared with the trip from the Persian Gulf through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. The Middle East, which produces about a third of the world’s crude, ships most of it to Asia and those supplies aren’t affected. Crude prices in London are below $80 a barrel.

The situation is still developing, and it remains to be seen how long the threat will persist. However, the current situation has already had a significant impact on the oil industry and the global economy.

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