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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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UK and Canada’s Free-Trade Deal Talks Break Down Over Agricultural Products

 

The UK and Canada have failed to reach a free-trade deal after almost two years of negotiations. The UK was pushing to extend a temporary arrangement allowing exports of British cheese to Canada under low tariffs, similar to those enjoyed by EU members. Canada, for its part, had hoped to secure UK access for its beef and pork, which do not currently meet British regulatory standards. 

The UK government spokesperson said that Britain will only negotiate trade deals that “deliver” for its people. The breakdown in talks effectively leaves the UK at risk of being in a worse position than it was as a member of the bloc when it comes to Canada trade. The UK is Canada’s third-largest, single-country trading partner at over C$46 billion ($34 billion) a year, according to the Canadian government. The UK ranks Canada as its 18th-largest trading partner.

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