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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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UK and Canada’s Free-Trade Deal Talks Break Down Over Agricultural Products

 

The UK and Canada have failed to reach a free-trade deal after almost two years of negotiations. The UK was pushing to extend a temporary arrangement allowing exports of British cheese to Canada under low tariffs, similar to those enjoyed by EU members. Canada, for its part, had hoped to secure UK access for its beef and pork, which do not currently meet British regulatory standards. 

The UK government spokesperson said that Britain will only negotiate trade deals that “deliver” for its people. The breakdown in talks effectively leaves the UK at risk of being in a worse position than it was as a member of the bloc when it comes to Canada trade. The UK is Canada’s third-largest, single-country trading partner at over C$46 billion ($34 billion) a year, according to the Canadian government. The UK ranks Canada as its 18th-largest trading partner.

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