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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canadian Manufacturers of COVID-19 Protective Equipment Sue Ottawa for $5 Billion in Damages

 

Canadian manufacturers who produce masks and other protective equipment to combat COVID-19 are pursuing legal action against the federal government, seeking more than $5 billion in damages. Their claim alleges that Ottawa misled them regarding the purchase and promotion of their products.

In a statement of claim filed in Federal Court, the companies and their industry association assert that the government made “negligent misrepresentations” that led them to invest in personal protective equipment innovations, manufacturing, and production. These misrepresentations spanned a three-year period starting in March 2020. The companies and the Canadian Association of PPE Manufacturers contend that the government provided misleading information about markets, direct assistance, flexible procurement, and long-term support.

The Canadian government had communicated through an initiative called Canada’s Plan to Mobilize Industry to fight COVID-19 that there would be new measures to directly support businesses in rapidly scaling up production or retooling their manufacturing lines. However, despite identifying masks and respirators as vital items for an airborne pandemic, the government did not contract with the Canadian companies, invoking a national security exception for procurement. Furthermore, in June 2021, the government allegedly promised a 10-year contract with the industry association and businesses to compensate for not purchasing protective equipment from domestic firms.

The companies claim that these misrepresentations resulted in approximately $88 million in investment losses and a further $5.4 billion in projected lost market opportunities over a ten-year period. They emphasize that this promise came from the highest levels of the Canadian government and was propagated across all relevant departments.

As the court case proceeds, the federal government will have an opportunity to respond to these unproven allegations. The manufacturers’ “special relationship” with the government, born out of a duty of care to small- and medium-sized businesses, underscores the significance of this legal battle.

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