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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Small Businesses in Canada Face Bankruptcy Risk Amidst Pandemic-Era Support Withdrawal

 


According to a recent report, thousands of small businesses in Canada are at risk of bankruptcy after the government ended pandemic-era support last month with the economy slowing at a time of high interest rates. 

Small firms that employ fewer than 100 people are critical to the Canadian economy as they give jobs to almost two-thirds of the country’s 12 million private workers. A spike in bankruptcies, which jumped 38% in the first 11 months of 2023, would weigh on economic growth, lobby groups and economists warn. 

Last month, small businesses faced a deadline to repay interest-free loans of C$60,000 ($44,676) made available to each of them during the pandemic. Of the 900,000 who had taken the government support, a fifth have not yet repaid their loans, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Monday. Katherine Cuplinskas, a spokesperson for the Finance Minister said in an emailed response that the Department of Finance did not expect there will be a negative impact on the economy on account of repayment of the loans given as support during the pandemic. She said loan recipients have long had full information on timelines and have been able to plan accordingly.


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