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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...

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U.S. and Iran tensions escalate after rocket attacks in Iraq

 

The U.S. and Iran are locked in a cycle of violence that threatens to spiral out of control, as both sides exchange rocket attacks and warnings in Iraq. The latest round of hostilities began on Sunday, when Iran-backed militias fired rockets at a U.S. base near Baghdad, killing a U.S. contractor and wounding several others. The U.S. responded by launching airstrikes on militia targets in Syria and Iraq, killing at least four fighters and injuring dozens more.

The U.S. said the strikes were a “proportionate” and “defensive” response to deter future attacks, but Iran and its allies condemned them as a “flagrant violation” of Iraqi sovereignty and international law. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said the U.S. was “taking the wrong path” and warned of “consequences” for its actions. The militias vowed to avenge their fallen comrades and continue their resistance against the U.S. presence in Iraq.

The situation has put the Biden administration in a difficult position, as it seeks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that was abandoned by former president Donald Trump. The deal, which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, was seen as a way to ease tensions and prevent a regional war. However, the deal has been unraveling since Trump withdrew from it in 2018 and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Iran to resume its nuclear activities and increase its support for militias in the region.

Biden has expressed his willingness to rejoin the deal, but only if Iran returns to full compliance first. Iran, on the other hand, has demanded that the U.S. lift all sanctions before it reverses its nuclear steps. The two sides have not yet agreed on a format or a timeline for negotiations, and the recent violence has further complicated the prospects for diplomacy. Some analysts fear that the escalation could undermine the chances of a peaceful resolution and push the region closer to the brink of war.

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