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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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U.S. and Iran tensions escalate after rocket attacks in Iraq

 

The U.S. and Iran are locked in a cycle of violence that threatens to spiral out of control, as both sides exchange rocket attacks and warnings in Iraq. The latest round of hostilities began on Sunday, when Iran-backed militias fired rockets at a U.S. base near Baghdad, killing a U.S. contractor and wounding several others. The U.S. responded by launching airstrikes on militia targets in Syria and Iraq, killing at least four fighters and injuring dozens more.

The U.S. said the strikes were a “proportionate” and “defensive” response to deter future attacks, but Iran and its allies condemned them as a “flagrant violation” of Iraqi sovereignty and international law. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said the U.S. was “taking the wrong path” and warned of “consequences” for its actions. The militias vowed to avenge their fallen comrades and continue their resistance against the U.S. presence in Iraq.

The situation has put the Biden administration in a difficult position, as it seeks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that was abandoned by former president Donald Trump. The deal, which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, was seen as a way to ease tensions and prevent a regional war. However, the deal has been unraveling since Trump withdrew from it in 2018 and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Iran to resume its nuclear activities and increase its support for militias in the region.

Biden has expressed his willingness to rejoin the deal, but only if Iran returns to full compliance first. Iran, on the other hand, has demanded that the U.S. lift all sanctions before it reverses its nuclear steps. The two sides have not yet agreed on a format or a timeline for negotiations, and the recent violence has further complicated the prospects for diplomacy. Some analysts fear that the escalation could undermine the chances of a peaceful resolution and push the region closer to the brink of war.

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