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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Israel Agrees to Gaza Ceasefire Framework: Now Awaiting Hamas’ Decision

 


In a significant development, Israel has essentially endorsed a framework for a proposed Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. The ball is now in Hamas’ court as they must decide whether to agree to it. A senior U.S. administration official revealed this information on Saturday, just a day before talks are scheduled to resume in Egypt.

The proposed framework includes a six-week ceasefire, which could provide much-needed relief to the conflict-weary region. Additionally, Hamas would be required to release hostages considered vulnerable, including the sick, wounded, elderly, and women. The Israelis have “more or less accepted” this proposal, according to the official. However, the final decision rests with Hamas, and efforts are ongoing to encourage their cooperation.

International mediators have been working tirelessly to broker this deal before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (around March 10). If successful, the agreement would allow aid to reach hundreds of thousands of desperate Palestinians in northern Gaza. These individuals are currently under the threat of famine due to the ongoing conflict.

In response to the dire situation, U.S. military planes have initiated airdrops of thousands of meals into Gaza. Jordan and Egypt have also conducted similar airdrops. However, aid groups emphasize that airdrops should be a last resort. Instead, they advocate for the opening of other crossings into Gaza and the removal of obstacles at the few existing ones.

The European Union’s diplomatic service has expressed concern over the chaos surrounding an aid convoy in Gaza. Many of the hundreds of Palestinians killed or wounded during the incident were hit by Israeli army fire. The EU calls for an international investigation, attributing the crisis to "restrictions imposed by the Israeli army and obstructions by violent extremists to the supply of humanitarian aid".

As the talks continue, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a breakthrough that will alleviate the suffering of those caught in the crossfire.


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