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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Trump Wins Colorado Ballot Case at Supreme Court, Defying Insurrection Charge

 

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday ruled that former President Donald Trump can appear on Colorado’s primary ballot for the 2024 presidential election, overturning a lower court decision that had disqualified him under a constitutional provision that bars insurrectionists from holding office.

The justices unanimously held that Colorado, or any other state, cannot invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which was enacted after the Civil War, to remove presidential candidates from the ballot without congressional action first. Section 3 states that any person who has taken an oath to the Constitution and has engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or given aid or comfort to its enemies, is ineligible to hold any federal or state office.

The ruling came a day before Super Tuesday, when Colorado and 15 other states will hold their primaries. Trump is seeking to regain the Republican nomination and challenge Democratic President Kamala Harris, who defeated him in 2020. Trump’s campaign has been marred by allegations that he incited the violent mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to stop the certification of Harris’s victory.

A Denver trial court judge had ruled that Trump had engaged in insurrection on that day, but was not disqualified from the ballot because he was not an officer of the United States at the time. The Colorado Supreme Court reversed that decision in a 4-3 ruling, finding that Trump was an officer of the United States when he took the oath of office in 2017, and that his conduct on Jan. 6 amounted to insurrection.

The U.S. Supreme Court disagreed, saying that Section 3 requires a prior determination by Congress that a person has engaged in insurrection, and that states cannot make that determination on their own. The court also said that allowing states to remove presidential candidates from the ballot under Section 3 would undermine the Framers’ vision of a federal government directly responsible to the people.

The court’s decision is a major victory for Trump, who has faced similar challenges in other states, such as Illinois and Maine, where he has also been barred from the ballot. Trump has denied any responsibility for the Capitol riot, and has claimed that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him.


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