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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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World Markets Anticipate Potential Trump White House Return

 

Investors worldwide are on edge as the specter of Donald Trump’s return to the White House looms large. Following Super Tuesday, which confirmed the November U.S. election showdown between Trump and incumbent Joe Biden, several critical flash points have emerged, capturing the attention of global markets.

Any escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and major economies could send shockwaves through world equity markets, currently hovering near record highs. European Union policymakers fear that Trump might reimpose tariffs on European steel and aluminum—tariffs that Biden had previously suspended. Additionally, concerns arise about potential tariffs on EU curbs related to U.S. tech giants. Trump’s threat of imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could significantly impact China’s GDP, especially when combined with stricter tariff enforcement. During his previous presidency, Trump imposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which remained in place under Biden. Bilateral trade initially dipped but rebounded during the pandemic surge in U.S. demand for electronics. However, recent tensions due to the Ukraine conflict have slowed this growth. China’s yuan and equities may bear the brunt if Trump’s tariff threats materialize.

Historically, U.S. stocks tend to end the year positively, regardless of the election outcome. However, the journey can be rocky. A divided Congress could temper policy plans for both candidates. Biden is expected to focus on renewable energy, while Trump might scrap electric vehicle subsidies and prioritize tax cuts. If Trump embarks on a “revenge tour,” the dollar could weaken, inflation might rise, and bond yields could climb, impacting investment decisions.

As the world watches, the question remains: Will Trump’s potential return reshape global markets or maintain the status quo?

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