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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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World Markets Anticipate Potential Trump White House Return

 

Investors worldwide are on edge as the specter of Donald Trump’s return to the White House looms large. Following Super Tuesday, which confirmed the November U.S. election showdown between Trump and incumbent Joe Biden, several critical flash points have emerged, capturing the attention of global markets.

Any escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and major economies could send shockwaves through world equity markets, currently hovering near record highs. European Union policymakers fear that Trump might reimpose tariffs on European steel and aluminum—tariffs that Biden had previously suspended. Additionally, concerns arise about potential tariffs on EU curbs related to U.S. tech giants. Trump’s threat of imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could significantly impact China’s GDP, especially when combined with stricter tariff enforcement. During his previous presidency, Trump imposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which remained in place under Biden. Bilateral trade initially dipped but rebounded during the pandemic surge in U.S. demand for electronics. However, recent tensions due to the Ukraine conflict have slowed this growth. China’s yuan and equities may bear the brunt if Trump’s tariff threats materialize.

Historically, U.S. stocks tend to end the year positively, regardless of the election outcome. However, the journey can be rocky. A divided Congress could temper policy plans for both candidates. Biden is expected to focus on renewable energy, while Trump might scrap electric vehicle subsidies and prioritize tax cuts. If Trump embarks on a “revenge tour,” the dollar could weaken, inflation might rise, and bond yields could climb, impacting investment decisions.

As the world watches, the question remains: Will Trump’s potential return reshape global markets or maintain the status quo?

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