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U.S. Midterms Tuesday: What the Vote Could Mean for the Loonie, Tariffs and Your Portfolio

  Canadian Money Brief | Feature U.S. Midterms Tuesday: What the Vote Could Mean for the Loonie, Tariffs and Your Portfolio By MoneySavings.ca | Published November 1, 2026 Americans vote Tuesday in elections that will fill all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Canadians don't get a ballot, but we do get the consequences: a loonie that swung from an 18-month low to a six-week high in about two weeks, a tariff fight that has put 50% duties on roughly US$20 billion of our exports, and a lot of U.S. stock sitting inside our TFSAs and RRSPs. Here is how to think about all of it without trying to guess the winner. The short version: Nobody can reliably trade an election result. Forecasters lean toward Democrats winning the House, with the Senate closer. But history says the bigger market moves tend to come in the months after the vote, not on election night. For Canadians, the useful steps are practical: convert U.S. dollars in pieces, know how much U.S. stock you hold, and don't...
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Wall Street’s Steady Stance Amidst Economic Uncertainty

 

In the wake of last week’s tumultuous market movements, Wall Street exhibited a remarkable calm on Monday. Despite the S&P 500’s recent proximity to record highs, it remained virtually unchanged in early trading. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a modest increase of 51 points, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite was also steady.

Investors’ attention is largely fixated on interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s potential actions to alleviate economic pressures. With persistent inflation and a resilient economy, expectations for rate reductions have been postponed. The upcoming week is critical, with several key reports due, including updates on consumer inflation and wholesale-level inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the possibility of rate cuts this year, contingent upon further evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target. However, the Fed’s current high interest rates, a strategy to curb inflation, carry the risk of triggering a recession.

Amid these concerns, some Fed officials have suggested that rates may remain elevated if inflation does not subside. Consequently, traders have tempered their expectations for rate cuts, with predictions now ranging from two cuts this year, down from an earlier anticipation of three or more.

As the nation approaches the presidential election in November, the timing of rate adjustments is crucial. The Fed, while independent, must avoid the appearance of political bias in its decisions. The market remains uncertain, with a 50% chance of a rate cut by June, reflecting the delicate balance the Fed must strike in its economic stewardship.

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