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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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US Futures Dip as Investors Seek Inspiration


The US stock market futures are showing a slight decline today as investors search for inspiration amid mixed signals. Let’s break down the key points:

  1. Rate-Cut and AI Growth Hopes Take a Hit:

    • The recent optimism surrounding rate cuts and artificial intelligence (AI) growth has waned. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that interest rates will remain higher for longer due to persistent inflation concerns.
    • High yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have weighed on growth stocks, particularly megacap Big Tech companies.

  2. Arm’s Revenue Forecast Dampens AI Enthusiasm:

    • Arm, a major chip designer, provided a downbeat annual revenue forecast. This has cast doubt on the AI growth narrative that had previously boosted chip stocks.
    • Shares of Arm dropped 9% in pre-market trading, and sector peers Nvidia and AMD also saw slight declines.

  3. Earnings Season Continues:

    • Warner Bros. Discovery reported earnings that missed estimates, failing to provide support for investors seeking positive catalysts.
    • Other companies, including Roblox and Yelp, are also reporting earnings today as the season winds down.

  4. Macro Front Updates:

    • Keep an eye on weekly jobless claims data, which is due later today.
    • San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly is scheduled to speak, potentially providing further insights.

In summary, the stock market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring earnings reports and macroeconomic indicators. The path forward depends on how various factors play out in the coming days.


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