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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...

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US Futures Dip as Investors Seek Inspiration


The US stock market futures are showing a slight decline today as investors search for inspiration amid mixed signals. Let’s break down the key points:

  1. Rate-Cut and AI Growth Hopes Take a Hit:

    • The recent optimism surrounding rate cuts and artificial intelligence (AI) growth has waned. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that interest rates will remain higher for longer due to persistent inflation concerns.
    • High yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have weighed on growth stocks, particularly megacap Big Tech companies.
  2. Arm’s Revenue Forecast Dampens AI Enthusiasm:

    • Arm, a major chip designer, provided a downbeat annual revenue forecast. This has cast doubt on the AI growth narrative that had previously boosted chip stocks.
    • Shares of Arm dropped 9% in pre-market trading, and sector peers Nvidia and AMD also saw slight declines.
  3. Earnings Season Continues:

    • Warner Bros. Discovery reported earnings that missed estimates, failing to provide support for investors seeking positive catalysts.
    • Other companies, including Roblox and Yelp, are also reporting earnings today as the season winds down.
  4. Macro Front Updates:

    • Keep an eye on weekly jobless claims data, which is due later today.
    • San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly is scheduled to speak, potentially providing further insights.

In summary, the stock market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring earnings reports and macroeconomic indicators. The path forward depends on how various factors play out in the coming days.


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