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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Foreign Interference in Canadian Democracy: Unmasking Parliamentarians’ Involvement

 

The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) has recently revealed a startling finding: an unknown number of federal politicians in Canada are knowingly working with hostile countries to interfere in our democracy. This report sheds light on the involvement of sitting parliamentarians in foreign interference operations, including divulging secrets to foreign governments. Here are the key points from the report:

  1. Witting or Semi-Witting Participation: The committee reviewed top-secret intelligence reports that suggested some parliamentarians are “witting or semi-witting” participants in foreign interference activities. These actions include collaborating with foreign governments to further their own interests within Canada.

  2. Ethical Concerns: While some of these activities may be illegal, they are unlikely to lead to criminal charges due to Canada’s failure to adequately protect classified information and methods in judicial processes. Regardless, the behaviors are deeply unethical and contrary to the oaths and affirmations that parliamentarians take to conduct themselves in the best interests of Canada.

  3. Gaps in Information Sharing: The report highlights serious gaps in the way Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), and other federal security agencies share intelligence about foreign interference. These gaps occurred between 2018 and 2023, and it appears that CSIS and the information gatekeepers at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office did not see eye to eye.

  4. Urgency and Legislative Reforms: Prior to leaks about foreign interference activities, there was little urgency among elected officials and senior decision-makers to address this well-documented threat to national security. However, the leaks prompted the government to start considering key legislative reforms and take meaningful actions against particular states.

  5. China, India, and Iran: The report specifically mentions foreign meddling by countries like China, India, and Iran. These nations have been involved in activities that cross the line from legitimate lobbying and diplomacy into foreign interference.

In summary, this report underscores the need for vigilance in safeguarding our democratic institutions and addressing foreign interference. While the leaks were regrettable, they did prompt the government to take this issue more seriously. It’s essential that we continue to monitor and address these challenges to protect Canada’s sovereignty and democratic processes.


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