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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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S&P/TSX Composite Closes Lower Amid Broader Losses

Canada’s main stock index, the S&P/TSX composite, closed lower on Friday, echoing the trend in U.S. markets. Despite earlier gains, the S&P/TSX composite index ended down 66.37 points at 21,875.79. The decline was driven by weakness in energy and industrials sectors.

Statistics Canada reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3% in April, but the early read for May showed growth slowing to 0.1% for the month. Consumers in Canada appear to be pulling back, impacted by higher interest rates over the past two years. Portfolio manager Hadiza Djataou noted that consumption is taking a hit, influencing stock performance.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 45.20 points at 39,118.86, the S&P 500 index dropped 22.39 points to 5,460.48, and the Nasdaq composite fell 126.08 points to 17,732.60. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge indicated a 2.6% rise in consumer prices for May, easing from April’s 2.7% reading.

The Canadian dollar traded at 73.06 cents US, and while Canada’s GDP data didn’t significantly impact interest rate expectations, Djataou anticipates further pressure on the loonie due to diverging economic trajectories between Canada and the U.S.


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