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BoC Holds at 2.25%: What the Rate Decision (and Rising Gas Prices) Mean for Your Wallet

  Thursday, July 16, 2026 Sixth consecutive hold. A weaker 2026 growth forecast. And inflation that's running hotter because of gas prices, not the usual suspects. Here's what actually changes for you. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, exactly as markets expected. No surprise there. What's more interesting is why it held, and what it revealed about where the economy — and your bills — are headed next. This was the sixth straight hold since the Bank finished its easing cycle back in October. But buried in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report were a few numbers worth your attention. The Numbers That Matter Overnight Rate 2.25% (unchanged) Prime Rate (typical) 4.45% 2026 GDP Growth Forecast 0.7% (cut from 1.2%) 2027 / 2028 Growth Forecast 1.8% each year May CPI Inflation 3.2% Inflation Excluding Gasoline 2.2% Unemployment Rate (June) 6.5% Next Rate Decision September 2, 2026 Why Gas Prices Are Driving This Decision Here's the twist in th...
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S&P/TSX Composite Index Faces Broad-Based Decline Amidst U.S. Market Strength

 

 Canada’s main stock index, the S&P/TSX composite, closed lower on Wednesday in a broad-based decline. The subdued trading session coincided with U.S. markets being closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

The key points are as follows:

  1. Market Performance:

    • The S&P/TSX composite index closed 94.40 points lower at 21,516.90.
    • This decline continues a trend that has seen the TSX index down approximately 4.4% over the last month.
    • In contrast, the S&P 500 in New York has risen by 3.5% during the same period.

  2. Two Markets, Different Trajectories:

    • Michael Currie, senior investment adviser at TD Wealth, highlighted the divergence between U.S. and Canadian markets. While the U.S. market remains strong, Canada’s market has been weakening.
    • Currie stated, “It’s certainly not crashing by any stretch, but the general trend has been negative, and that seems to be more of what’s continuing today.”

  3. Sector Performance:

    • The industrial and health care sectors led the declines, down approximately 0.95% and 1.1%, respectively.
    • Financials were down 0.5%, and energy declined by about 0.2%.
    • The Canadian dollar traded at 72.94 cents US, slightly higher than the previous day.

  4. Bank of Canada’s Decision:

    • The Bank of Canada recently lowered its key rate for the first time in over four years. Deliberations around this decision showed some hesitancy, but markets still anticipate another rate cut in July.
    • There is concern that as rates decrease, the Canadian dollar (the loonie) may weaken against the U.S. dollar.

  5. Commodity Markets:

    • Commodity markets were also closed due to the U.S. holiday.

In summary, while the S&P/TSX composite index experienced a decline, the broader context involves contrasting market trajectories between Canada and the U.S. Investors will closely watch further developments and central bank decisions in the coming weeks.


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