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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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S&P/TSX Composite Index Faces Broad-Based Decline Amidst U.S. Market Strength

 

 Canada’s main stock index, the S&P/TSX composite, closed lower on Wednesday in a broad-based decline. The subdued trading session coincided with U.S. markets being closed for the Juneteenth holiday.

The key points are as follows:

  1. Market Performance:

    • The S&P/TSX composite index closed 94.40 points lower at 21,516.90.
    • This decline continues a trend that has seen the TSX index down approximately 4.4% over the last month.
    • In contrast, the S&P 500 in New York has risen by 3.5% during the same period.

  2. Two Markets, Different Trajectories:

    • Michael Currie, senior investment adviser at TD Wealth, highlighted the divergence between U.S. and Canadian markets. While the U.S. market remains strong, Canada’s market has been weakening.
    • Currie stated, “It’s certainly not crashing by any stretch, but the general trend has been negative, and that seems to be more of what’s continuing today.”

  3. Sector Performance:

    • The industrial and health care sectors led the declines, down approximately 0.95% and 1.1%, respectively.
    • Financials were down 0.5%, and energy declined by about 0.2%.
    • The Canadian dollar traded at 72.94 cents US, slightly higher than the previous day.

  4. Bank of Canada’s Decision:

    • The Bank of Canada recently lowered its key rate for the first time in over four years. Deliberations around this decision showed some hesitancy, but markets still anticipate another rate cut in July.
    • There is concern that as rates decrease, the Canadian dollar (the loonie) may weaken against the U.S. dollar.

  5. Commodity Markets:

    • Commodity markets were also closed due to the U.S. holiday.

In summary, while the S&P/TSX composite index experienced a decline, the broader context involves contrasting market trajectories between Canada and the U.S. Investors will closely watch further developments and central bank decisions in the coming weeks.


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