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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Hopes for a swift resumption of peace talks to resolve Cyprus’ long-standing ethnic division were dashed as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed his support for a two-state solution. Speaking ahead of a military parade commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Turkish invasion that split the island, Erdogan dismissed the United Nations-endorsed plan for a federated Cyprus, which Greek Cypriots have long supported.

Erdogan’s remarks came as a blow to those advocating for a unified Cyprus. The Turkish president emphasized that a federal solution is not feasible, insisting that the rights of Turkish Cypriots must be recognized through a two-state arrangement. This stance complicates efforts by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and his envoy, Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar, who have been working to bring both sides back to the negotiating table.

The anniversary of the invasion is marked differently across the island. In the north, Turkish Cypriots celebrate what they view as liberation from Greek Cypriot dominance, while in the south, Greek Cypriots mourn the invasion’s devastating impact, which left thousands dead or missing and displaced a significant portion of the population.

Erdogan’s firm position underscores the deep-seated divisions that continue to hinder peace efforts. As both sides remain entrenched in their views, the path to reconciliation appears increasingly uncertain.


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