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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Rising Middle East Tensions: Key Leaders Assassinated


n a dramatic escalation of Middle East tensions, the leaders of two prominent Iranian-backed groups, Hamas and Hezbollah, were killed in separate attacks within 24 hours. These incidents have sparked fears of a broader regional conflict.

Hamas Leader Assassinated in Tehran

Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed in an airstrike in Tehran on Wednesday. Haniyeh was in Iran to attend the inauguration of the new Iranian president. Hamas quickly blamed Israel for the attack, although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Haniyeh’s death is a significant blow to Hamas, which has been engaged in indirect ceasefire negotiations with Israel, brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S.

Hezbollah Commander Killed in Beirut

Just hours before Haniyeh’s assassination, Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, was killed in an Israeli strike on the outskirts of Beirut. Hezbollah, a heavily armed militia group based in Lebanon, has long been involved in conflicts with Israel. Shukr’s death further complicates the already tense situation in the region.

Reactions and Implications

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed to seek revenge for Haniyeh’s death, raising the specter of further violence. The U.S. State Department has issued a travel advisory, warning Americans against traveling to Lebanon due to the rising tensions.

These assassinations come at a time when the region is already on edge following a series of violent incidents. The deaths of these key figures are likely to have significant repercussions, potentially undermining ongoing peace efforts and leading to further instability in the Middle East.


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