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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Tensions Rise Following Israeli Drone Strike in Lebanon

 

In the early hours of Thursday, an Israeli drone strike in eastern Lebanon resulted in the death of a prominent militant leader, Muhammed Jabara, affiliated with both Hamas and the Lebanese Islamist group al-Jamaa al-Islamiya. The strike occurred in the village of Ghazzeh, located in the Western Beqaa District, approximately 40 kilometers from the Israeli border.

Jabara, a key figure in orchestrating attacks against Israel, was targeted while driving. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the strike, stating that Jabara was responsible for planning and executing attacks, including rocket fire, on northern Israel. His death is seen as a significant blow to the operational capabilities of Hamas and its allies in the region.

The aftermath of the strike has heightened tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border, with increased military presence and heightened alertness on both sides. Lebanese state media reported that the strike has led to a surge in security measures and a state of heightened vigilance among militant groups.

This incident is part of a broader pattern of escalating hostilities between Israel and militant groups in Lebanon, often involving cross-border skirmishes and retaliatory attacks. The situation remains volatile, with potential implications for regional stability and security.

As the region braces for possible further escalations, international observers are calling for restraint and dialogue to prevent a full-scale conflict.



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