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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Toronto’s Condo Crisis: A Dire Signal for Housing Affordability and Rental Market

 

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is facing a condo crisis that has significant implications for housing affordability and rental supply. According to a recent report by CIBC and Urbanation, the GTA’s condo market is “clearly in recessionary territory,” and the nationwide housing crisis is at a level not seen in over 30 years. Here are the key points:

  1. Condo Pre-Sales at a 20-Year Low: Toronto-area condo pre-sales are below 50%, marking a more than 20-year low. High costs, high interest rates, and poor investment prospects have left the market in a challenging situation.

  2. Investor Dilemma: Condo investors play a crucial role in rental supply and overall housing affordability. However, recent investors are mostly losing money, and prospective investors are avoiding new projects due to uncertainty.

  3. Developers Struggle: Developers face rising construction costs due to inflation, coupled with dwindling interest in future projects. This slowdown in future supply exacerbates the crisis.

  4. Limited Relief: Falling interest rates, projected population growth slowdown, and stabilized construction costs provide some relief. However, it’s not a magic solution, and a more comprehensive policy response is needed.

  5. Record-High Inventory: Unsold condo inventory in the second quarter of 2024 reached a record high of 25,893 units, more than 60% higher than the 10- and 20-year averages. Sales were the lowest in 20 years outside of the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In summary, Toronto’s condo market woes underscore the urgent need for housing policy reforms and creative solutions to address affordability and rental challenges.


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