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5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision Looms, TSX Slides, Gas Prices Climb (Sept 16)

  Wednesday, September 16, 2026 The Fed's biggest decision in years lands at 2 p.m. ET today, the TSX and loonie are both licking their wounds, and drivers are paying more at the pump despite the gas tax holiday. Here's what's moving your money this morning. 1. The Fed Decides on Rates Today — and a Hike Looks All but Certain The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Markets have priced in over 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% from 3.50%–3.75%, where it's sat since December. It would be the first hike of this cycle, driven by inflation still running above target even as the labour market holds up. What it means for you: A Fed hike widens the gap with the Bank of Canada's 2.25% rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and nudge Canadian bond yields — and by extension fixed mortgage pricing — upward. Watch for the reaction ...
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Toronto’s Condo Crisis: A Dire Signal for Housing Affordability and Rental Market

 

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is facing a condo crisis that has significant implications for housing affordability and rental supply. According to a recent report by CIBC and Urbanation, the GTA’s condo market is “clearly in recessionary territory,” and the nationwide housing crisis is at a level not seen in over 30 years. Here are the key points:

  1. Condo Pre-Sales at a 20-Year Low: Toronto-area condo pre-sales are below 50%, marking a more than 20-year low. High costs, high interest rates, and poor investment prospects have left the market in a challenging situation.

  2. Investor Dilemma: Condo investors play a crucial role in rental supply and overall housing affordability. However, recent investors are mostly losing money, and prospective investors are avoiding new projects due to uncertainty.

  3. Developers Struggle: Developers face rising construction costs due to inflation, coupled with dwindling interest in future projects. This slowdown in future supply exacerbates the crisis.

  4. Limited Relief: Falling interest rates, projected population growth slowdown, and stabilized construction costs provide some relief. However, it’s not a magic solution, and a more comprehensive policy response is needed.

  5. Record-High Inventory: Unsold condo inventory in the second quarter of 2024 reached a record high of 25,893 units, more than 60% higher than the 10- and 20-year averages. Sales were the lowest in 20 years outside of the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In summary, Toronto’s condo market woes underscore the urgent need for housing policy reforms and creative solutions to address affordability and rental challenges.


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