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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Stock Market Slump: Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 Slide as Treasury Yields Hit Highest Level Since July

 

The U.S. stock market experienced a notable downturn today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 all recorded losses. This decline comes amid rising Treasury yields, which have reached their highest levels since July.

The S&P 500 dropped over 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 120 points, or approximately 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also slid by around 0.6%.

Investors are reacting to a recent bond-market selloff and are bracing for the upcoming wave of earnings reports. The 10-year Treasury yield steadied around 4.2% after Monday’s sharp gains pushed it above this level for the first time in months.

The market’s performance is being influenced by growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. Strength in the economy, cautious statements from Fed officials, and concerns about the fiscal impact of the upcoming presidential election are contributing to the uncertainty.

Despite the broader market decline, some companies have shown resilience. General Motors, for instance, raised its guidance for the third time this year, thanks to strong electric vehicle sales, which helped the company beat quarterly profit and revenue expectations.

As investors navigate these turbulent times, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s next moves and the ongoing earnings season, which could provide further insights into the market’s direction.


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