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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Economists Criticize Liberals' New Stimulus Package, Question Long-Term Impact

 

Canada’s Liberal government has unveiled a new stimulus package aimed at addressing economic uncertainty, but the move is drawing skepticism from economists who question its rationale and potential implications for fiscal policy.

The package, which includes targeted financial relief for low- and middle-income households, tax credits for businesses, and infrastructure investments, is designed to counter inflationary pressures and boost economic activity. However, experts warn that such measures may have unintended consequences.

“Introducing new spending programs in the current economic climate could exacerbate deficits and put additional strain on taxpayers in the long run,” said Kevin Milligan, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia. “It’s not good for tax policy to continually rely on temporary fixes.”

Critics also argue that the package lacks clear metrics for success and risks fueling inflation rather than curbing it. Others, however, defend the plan as necessary to support vulnerable Canadians amid rising costs of living and global economic uncertainty.

As Parliament debates the package, opposition parties have demanded greater transparency on how the funding will be allocated and its expected impact on Canada’s long-term economic health.


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