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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds as Lebanese Civilians Begin Returning Home


In the early hours of Wednesday, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, bringing a temporary halt to over a year of conflict. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, was announced by U.S. President Joe Biden and approved by Israel's security cabinet.

As the ceasefire took hold, thousands of Lebanese civilians began returning to their homes in the south, despite warnings from the Israeli military to delay their return until the area is fully secured. The agreement stipulates a 60-day period for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese army will deploy troops to ensure Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure.

The ceasefire has been welcomed by international leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who see it as a crucial step towards stability in the region. However, the situation remains tense, with both sides prepared to respond to any violations of the agreement.



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