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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Liberals and NDP Push GST Holiday Bill Through House of Commons


The House of Commons has passed legislation that will remove the federal sales tax for two months from a range of items, including children's toys, books, restaurant meals, and takeout, as well as beer and wine.

As expected, the NDP helped the minority Liberals push the exemption through Thursday night. The Conservatives voted against the bill, calling the measure a "temporary two-month tax trick," as did the Bloc Québécois. The bill, which the Liberals and NDP agreed to fast-track through the usual procedural steps, now goes to the Senate. Once passed, the legislation will provide a GST rebate beginning Dec. 14 and lasting until Feb. 15, 2025.

The Liberals originally pitched the tax holiday along with a plan to send $250 cheques to the 18.7 million people in Canada who worked in 2023 and earned $150,000 or less. However, some Canadians have raised concerns about being excluded from the millions who would receive those cheques. The NDP threatened to withhold support for the entire package if the government didn't split the promises into two pieces of legislation. The Liberals did not include the cheques measure in the bill the House of Commons passed Thursday night. It is unclear when they might present that legislation.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said in a media statement on Wednesday that his party will support the cheque measure later if the Liberals expand it to include more Canadians, "including seniors, people with disabilities and injured workers". Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has billed the tax holiday as an affordability measure aimed at alleviating cost-of-living pressures. Some economists have cautioned that the measure could have inflationary consequences later this spring.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said the government should instead adopt his policy suggestions by scrapping the carbon tax and removing the GST from new homes sold for under $1 million. "My tax cuts are not just about lowering costs. They're about sparking more production," he said.



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