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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Mexico Threatens Retaliation Over Proposed Tariffs, Warns of Job Losses


Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has issued a stern warning against the proposed 25% tariffs by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, stating that such measures could result in the loss of 400,000 U.S. jobs and increased prices for American consumers. Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico would respond with reciprocal tariffs if the U.S. proceeds with the plan.

During a press conference, Sheinbaum highlighted the potential impact on the automotive sector, noting that nearly 90% of pickup trucks sold in the U.S. are manufactured in Mexico. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard echoed these concerns, calling the proposed tariffs a "shot in the foot" that would harm both U.S. workers and companies.

The Mexican government has also expressed confidence that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) would protect their trade interests. Sheinbaum and Trump discussed the issue in a recent phone call, with Trump claiming that Sheinbaum agreed to address migration and drug smuggling.

The situation remains tense as both countries navigate the complexities of trade relations and the potential economic fallout of the proposed tariffs.




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