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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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New Tariffs on Canadian Oil and Gas Could Drive Up U.S. Energy Prices

Energy producers are sounding the alarm over proposed tariffs on Canadian oil and gas, warning that such measures could lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers. The Trump administration has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada, including energy products, as part of an effort to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. 

Canada is the largest supplier of crude oil to the United States, with over 3.8 million barrels per day being imported. Industry experts argue that tariffs would not only hurt the Canadian energy sector but also result in increased costs for American consumers. "Imposing tariffs on Canadian oil would lead to higher gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S.," said Richard Masson, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy.

The potential tariffs have sparked concern among U.S. energy producers, who fear that the increased costs could disrupt supply chains and lead to inflation. "This is a lose-lose situation for both countries, added Dennis McConaghy, a former executive with TC Energy. 

As negotiations continue, the energy industry is urging policymakers to consider the broader economic impact of such tariffs and to seek alternative solutions to address the underlying issues.




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