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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Wall Street Holds Steady Amid Trump's Tariff Threats

                                       

US stocks showed resilience on Tuesday as investors weighed President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose fresh tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. The S&P 500 inched up roughly 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped about 0.4%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% after hitting a record high.

Trump's pledge to impose tariffs from his first day in office initially sparked trade war fears, but Wall Street seemed to take the news in stride, holding onto gains from Monday's Bessent-bounce. Investors are now closely watching the release of Federal Reserve minutes for clues on the pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.

European carmakers, particularly Nissan and Honda, faced pressure due to Trump's "America First" push, while the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar dropped sharply. Meanwhile, bitcoin retreated to trade around $92,840 per token as its bid for the $100,000 milestone ran out of steam.




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