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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Senate to Decide Fate of Funding Bill as Shutdown Deadline Looms


In a dramatic turn of events, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a crucial funding bill just hours before the midnight deadline, sending it to the Senate for immediate consideration. The bill, which passed with a vote of 366-34, aims to temporarily fund federal operations and provide disaster aid, but notably excludes an increase in the debt ceiling as demanded by President-elect Donald Trump.

House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized the importance of avoiding a government shutdown, especially during the holiday season, while acknowledging the challenges posed by Trump's last-minute demands. The bill now faces a critical test in the Senate, where its passage is expected but not guaranteed.

As the clock ticks down, all eyes are on the Senate to see if they can act swiftly enough to prevent a shutdown that would disrupt federal services and impact millions of Americans.




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