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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canadian Dollar Sees Hope as Trudeau Announces Resignation

The Canadian dollar, which has been on a downward trend for months, saw a brief surge following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement of his resignation. Economists and market strategists are cautiously optimistic about the potential for economic recovery with new leadership on the horizon.

Trudeau's resignation, which came amidst political uncertainty and economic challenges, has sparked a wave of speculation about the future of Canada's economy. The Canadian dollar, often referred to as the "loonie," briefly rose by about one percent against the U.S. dollar in early trading on Monday. This movement reflects a renewed confidence among investors who believe that a change in leadership could lead to more stable and growth-oriented policies.

However, not all experts are convinced that the loonie's rise will be sustained. RSM Canada economist Tu Nguyen warned that Trudeau's resignation could usher in a new wave of uncertainty, potentially delaying economic recovery as businesses adopt a wait-and-see approach. The political upheaval has also led to a surge in Canada's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, reaching its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite these concerns, some market strategists believe that a new Conservative government, potentially led by Pierre Poilievre, could improve Canada's economic prospects by fostering better relations with the United States and implementing pro-growth policies.

As Canada navigates this period of transition, the world will be watching closely to see if the loonie's recent gains are a sign of long-term recovery or just a temporary blip in an otherwise challenging economic landscape.



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